Nebraska's leading indicator rises for a second straight month

After weak growth during the first quarter of the new year, Nebraska's economy should gain more speed during the second quarter, according to the latest leading economic indicator report from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

The indicator, a composite of six economic factors that predicts growth six months into the future, rose modestly, by 0.38 percent, in November.

The rise in the index followed a solid increase in October.

"The increase in the leading indicator suggests that the Nebraska economy will expand at a solid pace during the second quarter of 2016," said economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research at UNL. Thompson continued to predict weak growth for the first quarter of the year, based upon the indicator's weaker performance in previous months.

However, the indicator's components showed a split between export- and domestically oriented parts of the Nebraska economy.

On the domestic side, general business expectations, airline passenger counts and building permits for single-family homes all improved during November.

In Nebraska's export-oriented sectors, the value of the U.S. dollar rose and manufacturing hours declined. Initial unemployment claims rose slightly.

"The increase in the value of the dollar creates headwinds for Nebraska's export-oriented businesses in manufacturing and agriculture,” Thompson said.  

The leading economic indicator report is produced monthly by faculty and students in the economics department and the Bureau of Business Research in UNL's College of Business Administration.

The full report and a technical report describing the indicators are available at the UNL Bureau of Business Research website, http://www.bbr.unl.edu.

Writer: Leslie Reed, University Communications