Statistics expert McCutcheon to oversee '08 election exit polling for networks

Allan McCutcheon, a survey research expert at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, will have a leading role to play in the 2008 elections, courtesy of the agency that oversees the news media's exit polling.

Edison Media Research has asked McCutcheon to help direct the exit-polling it conducts for the National Election Pool in the capacity of senior statistical director. McCutcheon will be taking a year-long sabbatical leave beginning in January to work with the statistics and oversee the operation of models to predict outcomes in the 2008 presidential primaries and the 2008 general election.

McCutcheon is Donald O. Clifton Chair of survey science, founder and director of the Gallup Research Center, a professor of survey research methodology, and an internationally known expert in polling and survey methodology.

McCutcheon said the NEP is a collaboration by all the major networks -- NBC, ABC, CBS, Associated Press, CNN and Fox -- who have all agreed to use the election pool for consistency and accuracy.

Through 2002, the election exit polls were conducted by the Voter News Service. In 2003, the responsibility for the exit polls passed to the National Election Pool. The NEP exit polls are conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International and were co-directed by Joe Lenski and Warren Mitofsky. Following Mitofsky's death in 2006, McCutcheon was asked to assume a leadership role for the 2008 elections in partnership with Lenski, Edison Media Research's co-founder and executive vice president.

They will lead a team that will project the results for the 2008 primaries and the statewide general elections in November, including the presidential, gubernatorial and senatorial races. McCutcheon noted that in 2008 the U.S. electorate will have competitive presidential primaries in both parties for the first time since 2000. In addition, it has been 80 years since neither the sitting president or vice president has sought the nomination for president.

"Part of what I'll be doing to prepare is looking at and working with the network and AP statisticians to oversee and test the changes in the statistical models," McCutcheon said. "For the first time since 1928, we do not have an incumbent president or incumbent vice president running in either party, so the primaries will be really interesting." NEP will cover the competitive primaries and caucuses, and McCutcheon said by the end of "super duper Tuesday," Feb. 5, "it is very possible that we will know who the parties' presidential candidates are."

McCutcheon said most of what he will be doing is helping to improve the statistical models to create the most accurate projections possible.

"I can't imagine anything more exciting than being able to participate in democracy this way, to apply my survey skills in projecting elections on election night," he said. "I worked with Warren and Joe in the 2004 election and I recall Warren saying 'Welcome to the election from the inside'. That captures the excitement for me. The experience will also give me the chance to gain new knowledge and bring it back to my students in survey research methodology and statistics."

CONTACT: Allan McCutcheon, Professor, Survey Research Methodology, (402) 458-2035