Nebraska economic indicator drops slightly in October
Released on 11/16/2012, at 2:00 AM
Office of University Communications
University of Nebraska–Lincoln
The Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska dropped slightly -- 0.06 percent -- in October, according to economists at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln College of Business Administration.
This slight decline, however, followed three months of growth in the indicator from July through September. October's indicator is insufficient to reverse the trend of the previous three months -- and therefore, Nebraska's economy should grow at a moderate pace in the next six months, according to UNL economist Eric Thompson.
The state's leading economic indicator increased by 1.21 percent in July, 1.36 percent in August and 0.65 percent in September.
"The outlook was mixed in October," said Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research at UNL. "A drop in seasonally adjusted unemployment claims and the U.S. dollar suggest strength in the labor market and future growth in Nebraska's large export sector."
However, single-family building permits dropped after several months of growth, and business expectations continued to be weak, Thompson said.
The Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska, produced by the bureau and UNL's Department of Economics, is a composite of six components that predict future economic growth. They are single-family building permits, airline passenger counts, initial unemployment claims, manufacturing hours, the value of the U.S. dollar and business expectations gathered from the Survey of Nebraska Business.
Looking at the rest of the year, Thompson said recent values for the Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska suggest that the state's economy will still grow over the next six months, with the strongest improvement expected in January.
The full Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators report and a Technical Report describing the indicators are available at the UNL College of Business Administration website, www.cba.unl.edu.