Nebraska economic indicator rises, signaling modest state growth in 2013

            The Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska rose modestly, by 0.11 percent, in December, according to economists at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln College of Business Administration.

            The slight increase in the indicator, which is designed to predict economic growth within the state six months into the future, suggests that the Nebraska economy will grow modestly in the middle of 2013.

            The Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska, produced by UNL's Department of Economics and Bureau of Business Research, is a composite of six components that predict future economic growth. They are single-family building permits, airline passenger counts, initial unemployment claims, manufacturing hours, the value of the U.S. dollar and business expectations gathered from the Survey of Nebraska Business.

            "These components were mixed during December," said UNL economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research. "A falling U.S. dollar and a drop in initial unemployment insurance claims suggest improvement in exports and the labor market in Nebraska during the first half of 2013.

            "However, respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Businesses were pessimistic about the prospects for sales and employment growth over the next six months."

            Thompson said recent values for the Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska suggest the state's economy should grow solidly during the first quarter of 2013, but that growth will be limited between April and June.

            The full Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators report and a Technical Report describing the indicators are available at the UNL College of Business Administration website, www.cba.unl.edu.